CHECKING FOR DISEASE: Jarrett Hostetter (right) shows a flag leaf with suspected disease to Sarah Frame, a Penn State Extension educator, during a recent wheat tour. In south-central Pennsylvania, yield estimates range anywhere from 80 to 130 bushels, depending on soil type and on-farm practices.Photos by Chris Torres
No bin-busting yields are expected out of the region’s wheat fields, but considering the record-wet May, getting a decent yield this year might just be good enough.
“Our wheat looked really good. In terms of yield, based on what I saw, I think yields will average between 100 and 150 bushels. We toured very strong farmers who did everything right,” says Leland Sproul, owner of Leland Commodities Services in Milton, Del., who led a tour of farms in Delaware and Maryland last week. He estimates wheat acres on Delmarva are off by 8% to 12%.
Quality looks good, though, with few signs of fusarium head blight, or scab. Even though overall acres are down, Sproull says overall production could be made up by higher test weights.
“I remember a year like this in 2010, when acres were off, but test weights that year were high, between 64 and 65 pounds. We could see that this year,” he says. “When you get a strong test weight like that, it just kind of adds up a little bit in your bins. So, I’m not so sure we might offset that a little bit with test weights.”
ESTIMATING YIELD: Del Voight (right), Penn State Extension educator, uses a method developed by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln that calculates the number of heads per foot in a row; average number of kernels per head; and then dividing by the row space.
Wheat buyers and elevator operators, along with Extension educators and some farmers, toured several fields in south-central Pennsylvania. Yields estimates range anywhere from 80 to 130 bushels, depending on soil type and on-farm practices.
Scab was found on some farms, but nothing showed a widespread infestation.
Similar results were found in central Maryland fields, says George Mielke, owner of Trenton Hill Farms, a local elevator.
“We’re pretty pleased with stands,” he says. “Disease is light, only a little bit of head scab. A few hailstorms beat wheat up, but not significant. So, we’re pretty pleased with the appearance. Standability is very, very good, which is important that we don’t have any lodging at this point.”
Yields ranged anywhere from 75 to 100 bushels an acre, which Mielke says is average for the area. Considering the wet spring, Mielke says he was surprised at the high quality of the crop.
“It’s a matter of guys are taking this crop more seriously than they ever used to,” he says. “We’ve got more tools in our toolbox than we ever have before, by new fungicides that come by, and just an educational thing getting out to the growers that it is super important to do these things timely. If you’re going to have a product in the end that the flour mill really wants, you need to be paying attention.”
COUNTING HEADS: Eli Holden (left), Ardent Mills, and Jarrett Hostetter count wheat heads during a tour of south-central Pennsylvania wheat fields.
But what about price? The good news is that basis has rebounded from what was a record low last year. A recent look at USDA county elevator bids in both Pennsylvania and Maryland shows basis improving significantly, ranging from -75 under to 20 over in Maryland, although Mielke notes that could rise to 45 or 50 over as the month goes by.
Pennsylvania is showing basis ranging anywhere from -75 under in the western part of the state to up to 85 over in the east. Still, overall price is lower than last year. The updated USDA wheat market outlook season-average farm price is forecast at $5.30 a bushel, down 20 cents from last year, mostly because of higher ending stocks and lower exports.
“There’s still a lot of room for improvement there,” Mielke says.
HEAD SCAB: While fusarium head blight, or scab, was minimal, it still was found, like on this wheat head in Lebanon County.
Do your own field checks
If you want to calculate your own wheat yields, it’ll take a little bit of time and some math, but it’s not impossible.
Del Voight, Penn State Extension educator, says he uses a method developed by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln that calculates the number of heads per foot in a row; average number of kernels per head; and then dividing by the row space.
Here’s the step-by-step process:
1. Count number of heads per foot in five different areas of a field, then calculate the average.
2. Average the number of kernels per head from at least five heads in each site. This involves multiplying the number of spikelets per head by the number of kernels per spikelet.
3. Measure the distance in inches between the rows.
4. The formula is number of heads per foot multiplied by number of kernels per head, divided by row space and multiplying by 0.48. This should give you an average yield in bushels.
